NWA-PCUG 07/99 NewsLetter Article 18861 N. Hwy 112, Springdale, AR 72762-9303 The Internet, Present and Future Stephen Morgan, Plateau PCUG, Crossville, TN The estimated number of Internet subscribers recently hit 83 million people, up 20 million in the last 6 months. The introduction of good, inexpensive computers with modems will cause 1998 and '99 to be the years that people will look back on as the start of the "connected" lifestyle. Looking back over the last 5 years, it is mind-boggling how much has changed. Faster modem speeds, increasingly better Internet browser software, and an explosion of content available for viewing has made the Internet the biggest event of the 90's. What is going on now, and what will happen in the future? And what will be the effect on how Americans communicate and conduct their daily lives? This article tries to cover the present and point out how today's trends could influence life in the year 2005. Present Trends 1. Online Communities - The Internet is quickly becoming the favorite meeting place of the world. Students, Parents and business people log on for hours a day, talking to others in chat rooms and also by using the "buddy software" that lets you know when the people you want to communicate with are online and allows you to have conversations with them anytime. Before, you were limited to talking to 1 person at a time on the telephone. Now you can converse with dozens of people at a time. 2. Online gaming. - There are dozens of online area's to play games against others, the amazing thing is that several of them average over 100,000 users at one time! Whatever kind of game you play, you can now join with others on the Web and play anytime! No worry about getting a partner, there are always thousands of other people to play. No worry about wanting to leave early or late, there is always someone willing to take your place. 3. Online shopping - It has come down to this, anything you can buy at a store, can now be bought online. Cars, computers, clothes, appliances, books, music, antiques, pharmaceuticals, travel, jewelry... the list is endless. Since the merchants offering the products do not have brick and mortar stores to maintain, often the prices are less expensive then at traditional retail stores. There are even merchants that offer prices that are below their cost just to have you come to their sites and see the advertising. 4. Online news - Almost every newspaper in the country is also being published on the Web. It is now easy to keep up on news from your hometown, even if it is located 2000 miles away. Not only can you take your pick of any or all of the major newspapers, you can arrange to have them downloaded to your computer during the night, so that you can read them that morning. 5. Online Radio - Listening to the radio on the Internet has become so popular that Microsoft's newest web browser comes with a listing of all radio stations that offer Internet broadcasting. It even comes with a "radio tuner" that you can dial and get different broadcasts just like on your radio at home. At the present time, quality is good with voice radio; a fast modem is needed to hear true stereo music. What can we look forward to during the next 5 years? Here are some predictions: 1. The number of users of the Internet will climb to 80% of the USA population, or roughly 240 million individuals. 2. Pocket-sized computers with wireless Internet access will be available to everyone. This Summer IBM will introduce its new MicroDrive that fits 340 megabytes on a hard drive the size of a townhouse cracker. The next advance will be in 2001 when Optical Drives will store 20 Gigabytes in an area slightly larger than a postage stamp. Speech recognition software will become 99% accurate and will be the primary way to interface with all your computers. Combine all this with cheap access to nationwide digital cellular service and the ingredients for a truly connected society come together. 3. The Internet will be everywhere, a central part of every day. 95% of the population between 8 and 70 will have personal Internet access. Schools will become wired for the Internet and wonder how they taught without it. Homes will have computer access in several places, allowing the whole family to be connected. 4. 40% of all purchasing will be done on the Internet. During the next 5 years look for a large number of business's to close their doors because of inability to compete with web merchants. A huge benefactor of Internet sales should be anyone that delivers items bought on the Internet. 5. Call me a dreamer, but I believe that with the Internet available to all, more and more issues will be debated and resolved on the Internet. The near instantaneous nature of Internet communication means that policies can be proposed, debated and voted on within weeks. Imagine what the effect would be if new laws were proposed on the web, emailed to each person, debated on bulletin boards and then each person made a decision and sent it to their elected official! I believe that this will be especially useful for local communities to find out what residents want. I have always believed that while not all change is good, without change, things will never get better. We are looking at changes in the next 5 years that will totally transform the way everyone will work, play and manage their lives. Our challenge is to make sure that we seize this opportunity to make our lives better. This article is furnished as a benefit of our membership in the Association of Personal Computer User Groups (APCUG), an international organization to which this user group belongs. The author, Stephen Morgan has been watching and participating in the advance of computers since 1976 when he got hooked by one of the first Multi User Dungeons (MUD) available through the Minnesota Educational Internet System. He is currently the program chair for the Plateau PC Users Group in Crossville, TN and the Northwest USA advisor for APCUG.